PRIORITIZING THREATENED SPECIES BY VULNERABILITY TO POTENTIAL HABITAT CHANGE: A MULTI-METHOD APPROACH APPLIED IN COASTAL GEORGIA

Coastal Plain ecosystems in Georgia are vulnerable to future sea level rise (SLR) and urban development; effective wildlife management requires prioritizations of species based on exposure to these stressors. There are two challenges associated with this task: a) understanding the severity and form of potential habitat change species may experience and b) evaluating the interplay between expert-based methods (less time-intensive, more prone to judgement bias) and empirical-based methods (more time-intensive, potentially more accurate) of assessment for prioritizations. I analyzed exposure to potential habitat change due to potential SLR and urbanization for 15 Coastal Plain species using Species Distribution Models and compared prioritizations of species using this empirical method to prioritizations using expert-based methods. Results suggest that SLR results in high exposure to habitat change, and that empirical-based methods may provide lower estimates of vulnerability from both SLR and urbanization than expert-based methods. Results can inform updates to future management plans.