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Abstract
This study highlights the importance of addressing price and yield variability in assessing the productivity and profitability of blueberries in Georgia. The use of a deterministic approach to evaluate agricultural enterprise, which involves various stochastic processes by default, can be misleading. This study compares the returns from growing blueberries in Georgia using two different approaches, thus, deterministic and stochastic. A deterministic budget was extended into stochastic by defining the triangular distribution of blueberry prices and yields and simulating them using Monte Carlo simulation. Net present value (NPV) from blueberry investment using a deterministic budget is 1 to 3 times greater than from a stochastic budget. The chance of getting positive NPV is too low (23.85% - 30.24%) for growers in Georgia. Our results will be helpful to Georgian growers in making investment decisions. Furthermore, the results will be useful to farmers, researchers and farm risk analyzers in appraising agricultural investment.