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Abstract
This study focused on estimating a state-level soybean supply model in the United States. Based on theoretical and empirical literature, eight economic determinants were identified for the soybean supply model, and data were obtained on those determinants for each of the 28 soybean-producing states from 2000 to 2019. A recently developed method was adapted to quantify state-level exposure to China’s import tariff on US soybean. Statistical analysis resulted in the selection of a double-log fixed effects model, which confirmed the statistical significance of all determinants. The coefficient on the primary variable of interest, state-level exposure to China’s tariff, was statistically significant at the 10% level. It indicated that if the state-level exposure to Chinese tariff increased by 1% this year, then its soybean supply will decrease on average by 0.12% next year, all else constant. Additionally, world meat consumption was identified asa key shifter of state-level soybean supply.