Files
Abstract
Problem: Studies on long COVID-19 primarily focus on older ages. Our goal is to better understand the risk factors for long COVID-19 and predict which young adults are at increased risk for developing this condition. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis to identify risk factors for long COVID-19 that have been identified in literature including all adult ages. A survey was then administered to University of Georgia students in a cross-sectional study to identify risk factors associated with the development of long COVID in a young adult population. We then used our knowledge of associated risk factors from the first two aims to develop a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to predict young adults at risk for long COVID-19. Results: The meta-analysis identified 46 studies that reported risk factors for long COVID-19. We found statistically significant associations of age 60 to 70 years old, female sex, white race, having any comorbidity, being hospitalized, and having moderate or critical COVID-19 infection with an increased risk of long COVID-19. A total of 1,983 students completed our survey with 230 (11.6%) identified as having long COVID-19. Use of the lasso technique for variable selection yielded a logistic regression model with 7 risk factors. This model included testing positive before December 1, 2021 as well as six symptoms: body or muscle aches (aOR: 1.22), loss of taste or smell (aOR: 2.16), shortness of breath (aOR: 1.97), diarrhea (aOR: 1.68), brain fog (aOR:1.45), and new anxiety or depression (aOR: 1.32). Our CPR included risk factors female sex, having any comorbidity, and number of symptoms during acute infection and had an area under the cure (AUC) of 0.702. The model classified patients into low, moderate, and high risk groups with about 6 percent of the low risk and 75 percent of the high risk group having long COVID. Conclusion: Long COVID-19 is an outcome of COVID-19 that is a burden for all age groups, including young adults. We were able to successfully create a simple risk score that can identify young adults at high risk for long COVID-19.