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Abstract
This study examines the impact of drought conditions, specifically the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), on crop pattern shifts in rainfed agriculture in Georgia between 2012 and 2023. We utilize panel data on Corn (Zea mays L.), Cotton (Gossypium spp.), Peanuts (Arachis hypogaea), and Soybeans (Glycine max) planted acreage, incorporating regression models to analyze the influence of drought severity, time trends, and market prices on planting decisions. Georgia’s agricultural landscape, traditionally reliant on Cotton, has experienced shifts toward more drought-tolerant crops such as Peanuts and Soybeans, likely driven by increasing climate variability and fluctuating market conditions. The analysis of this study reveals heterogeneous crop-specific responses. Peanuts showed a significant negative relationship exists between lagged PDSI and acreage, indicating that drought conditions reduce peanut planting area. Conversely, soybeans show a positive but modest effect, consistent with their relative drought tolerance. Cotton and corn acreage exhibit no statistically significant relationship with lagged PDSI values. Robustness tests adopted for this study include heteroscedasticity checks, such as Hausman specification tests to affirm the suitability of the fixed effects model over random effects. Our findings reveal that while drought conditions using (PDSI) have a negative impact on Corn and Cotton acreage, they show minimal direct effect on Peanuts and Soybeans. This study concludes that the changing crop patterns in Georgia reflect both climate adaptation strategies and market-driven shifts. The findings of this study underscore the need for policy interventions that promote the adoption of drought-resistant crops and ensure agricultural sustainability in the face of climate change.