CLIMATE EXTREMES AND FIRE REGIMES IN THE PYRENEES MOUNTAINS OF SOULE, BASQUE COUNTRY, FRANCE

Pastoralists in Soule, France, a small province in the Basque Country, have helped to create a biodiverse landscape of grasslands and forests through thousands of years of transhumance – an ecologically sustainable form of livestock management that faces increasing ecological and social pressures. Historic and recent climate trends point to emerging challenges to the well-being of this socio-environmental system and the intertwined people, plants and animals that compose it. Soule is experiencing increased atmospheric aridity driven by rising global temperature that has outpaced gains in precipitation. The trend in atmospheric aridity, as measured by vapor pressure deficit, along with future climate projections point to a potential shift in the probability of forest fires driven by increasing VPD before the end of the century.