Predictive scientific assessment of future salt marsh transgression using slamm, sleuth, and a novel probabilistic model of estuarine shoreline armoring at the parcel scale

Salt marshes are an ecosystem particularly affected by sea level rise (SLR), and predicted rates of future SLR pose serious threats to salt marsh sustainability. Urbanization and human responses to SLR also have the potential to threaten salt marsh persistence; in particular, coastal developments and hard armoring can impede the ability of salt marshes to migrate inland. Although a range of models has been developed to predict coastal habitat changes in response to future SLR, trade-offs exist between model complexity, uncertainty, and management utility. This study presents a novel, parsimonious modeling framework for predictive assessment of salt marsh response to SLR at a scale appropriate for application to local and regional planning and decision making by accounting for the effects of current and potential future hard armoring distributions on salt marsh migration. This research advances prior modeling efforts by representing hard armoring distributions at the parcel level scale.