The allocation of presidential campaign resources: using state level polls to measure competitiveness

Political scientists have long debated how presidential campaigns allocate resources within the framework of the Electoral College. The debate involves not only how the resources are allocated, but also extends to the definitions and measurements of the variables involved in the prediction and explanation of these resource allocations. This paper argues that presidential campaigns allocate resources based upon a states overall value within the Electoral College calculus. The concept of a states value is derived from the interaction of two independent variables: a states presidential election competitiveness and a states Electoral College votes. The dependent variable (campaign resources) is operationalized via candidate visits. From a causal viewpoint, a states value dictates how campaigns allocate resources (again, a states value represents the interaction between a states presidential election competitiveness and a states Electoral College votes; this will be addressed more during the discussion of the model). The expectation is that as a states value increases, so do the resources allocated to it. I contend that polls are a key component needed to measure a states overall value.