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Abstract

Persistence in higher education, particularly the college completion rates at colleges and universities, is the focus of a variety of national and state initiatives. Many states, soon to include Georgia, include performance in the form of credential completion in state funding formulas for higher education funding. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, or IPEDS, is often used as a source for measuring completion rates. However, IPEDS does not include in their completion data the students who begin at one institution then complete at another. This study considers and applies existing literature on theoretical models, empirical studies and logistic regression models to create a quantitative model for analysis. Student-level data gathered by The Office of Strategic Research and Analysis at Georgia Southern University (GSU) from the USG by the Numbers (USG123) database and the National Student Clearinghouse is used to follow a cohort of students at GSU from their matriculation into higher education Fall Semester 2005 until Spring Semester 2014. The purpose of the study is to track a cohort of students to (1) confirm that the actual rate of completion is higher than reported in IPEDS and (2) identify predictor variables regarding the likelihood of a student entering GSU as a first time, full time freshman to complete a degree in four, five or six years; to complete a higher education credential at a different institution within six years; or not to complete a higher education credential within six years. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression are used in analysis of data regarding a cohort of students (N=3057) and which demographic, prior achievement and residency and citizenship variables might predict student success. In identifying these predictors, conclusions may be drawn following analysis of the data that will inform decisions on which students are most at risk of attrition and the recommended focus and timing of intervention strategies.

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