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Abstract
+The purpose of this study is to use a compartmental model, Susceptible- Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model, to study the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Beijing in 2003. The disease originated from south China, hit Beijing severely, afterwards spread to the world. In this study, we developed a least square method to estimate parameters of the SIR model using SARS infection data released by the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention during April 20th to June 24th. Then we used the least square estimates of the model parameters to simulate SARS infection data suggested. The simulation suggested that the SARS outbreak would occur in 30 days from the first day of the governments report, which was consistent with the SARS outbreak occurred in Beijing in 2003. Under this outbreak timeline, we can predict the future SARS outbreaks and establish an effective monitoring system and epidemic prevention mechanism.